March 28, 2008
Definition Of Stock Exchange
If you have money to invest, you might contemplate investing in mutual fund. What is mutual fund? Mutual fund is simply a collection of stocks that are bought using money pooled from various individual investors. Historically, average mutual fund returns 2% less annually than a stock market index.
While the return is less than stellar, there are several advantages of investing in mutual fund. They provide diversification, economies of scale and liquidity. So, the question you want to ask yourself is whether you want to have a smaller return for the advantages mentioned previously.
While two percent difference looks small, it is not pocket change. Investors who set aside $ 1 a day, would have $ 562,000 of savings in fifty years if he invests in stock index fund growing at 10.5% per annum. The same investors would collect ‘only’ $ 271,000 if he invests in average mutual fund that grow at 8.5% per annum.
There are also disadvantages investing in mutual funds. There is a problem on how to choose the ‘right’ mutual fund. If average mutual fund returns 8.5% annually, the below-average fund will give you less than that. Just like picking a stock, you would find some stocks that outperform the average and other stocks that do not perform well.
The next question would be if we investors can do better than stock market index fund of 10.5%? A lot of people believe they can. But, the path ahead is full of obstacles. First, you need to get educated about stocks in general and how to calculate the fair value of a common stock. Next, you need to open a brokerage account to execute your buy and sell order. Finally, you need to keep abreast of new developments. Business comes and goes. Industry rises and falls. Examples of industry that used to dominate are: typewriters, cassette players, sewing machine and traditional camera. If you don’t read often, you may predict that certain stock has a high fair value even when the entire industry is collapsing.
It all comes down to individual investors. Would they want to learn more and get a few more percentage return each year? Or would they let someone else manage their money? Me, I prefer to learn how to manage my own investment. Sure, it is time consuming. But giving a little bit of your time may give you the potential to double your retirement money in fifty years. The potential is rewarding and someday you might even manage someone else’s money.
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Even traders want to be trendy when they buy stocks. Many traders make trades because of public opinion, not because the trade itself makes sense. When a particular stock seems popular, they rush in so they don`t feel they`ve missed an opportunity. As a result they end up buying at a price point where the trade can`t possibly work out. You should always avoid the emotion of the “hot” stock.
Here`s an example of what not to do when you buy stocks: Let`s say you`ve been following a particular stock which is in a “hot” sector, and it just announced a stock split. The stock is now at $18, and you calculate it could get to $25 or more by the time of the split. The market is currently bullish, and it looks like a great trade.
The problem is that the stock has been rising for the past four days. It started at $12, but you didn`t notice it until it hit $18, and it`s still rising. The stock split is a month away, and you know it`s likely to fall in price somewhat between now and the split. Still, everyone is talking about this stock. What if it continues to rise and becomes the next blockbuster? You become afraid that if you don`t make a trade you`ll miss a great opportunity. (And besides, you want to be able to tell people that you hold a position in this stock, because it makes you seem smart.) So you buy 1,000 shares at $18.50.
During the next two weeks, the stock goes to $19, then levels off, loses momentum, and drifts down to $17. Then a couple of leading NASDAQ companies give earnings warnings, the market drops, and the stock slides to $15, triggering the stop you`d set at $16 on half your holdings. The stock trades in that range for a week, and then begins to rise slightly going into the split. Your plan is to sell a day or two after the split. The stock rises a little beyond $20.50 by the second day after the split, and then the volume dries up and you sell it for a $2 profit. But since you stopped out of half your shares at $16, you lost $2.50 per share on that half, with a net loss of $.50 on 500 shares. What went wrong?
What went wrong was that you didn`t let the stock come to you. Instead, you chased it as its price rose, knowing perfectly well that, following the stock split trend, it would probably pull back before running up again. It was more likely to pull back than it was to continue on an uninterrupted run to $25, and you knew that if you bought at $18 or higher you were probably paying too much. You ignored what you knew was more likely in favor of what might happen.
You should have given the stock a chance to come to you, at a price you felt was reasonable. If the stock had pulled a surprise and never gotten down to where you thought it would, that would be okay. There were many other stocks to trade, and some of them would have come down to your price. You didn`t have to own this particular stock.
What was the right way to play this particular scenario? When the market is bullish, it`s very likely for a stock to rise when a split is announced, drift down after a few days` rally, and then begin to rise again a week or so before the split. If that`s the trend and there`s no solid reason to think the stock will rise immediately, wait a few days for the stock to drift down and stabilize before buying it. If you had done so in this case, you could have bought it at $16.50 and then sold it for $20.50 for a $4.00 profit on the entire 1,000 shares.
If you had a solid reason to think the stock might continue to rally, you could have bought half the total number of shares you wanted at a price that might have turned out to be too high, and waited for a lower price to buy the other half. If it had turned out to be too high, it would only have reduced your profit. (No stock goes up or down in a straight line. Wait for a pullback before buying.)
There is a good way and a bad way to buy stocks or trade a “hot” stock. The good way requires discipline and careful market evaluation. The bad way is to trade from your feelings. As you can see from this example, it`s always more profitable to trade the good way.
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