It is a very interesting number that was echoed yesterday in the stock markets. This pesky $700 billion is obviously a MAGIC NUMBER. And therefore, a herald of sorts. Like a trumpet blowing in our ears. And I hope it has woken up the …

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Over The Counter Bulletin Board stocks (OTCBB) and the Pink Sheets are the two types of penny stocks you will encounter. The main difference between the two is that OTCBB stocks are required to file with the SEC and the pink sheet stocks are not. Some traders refuse to trade pink sheets because of this, those traders are missing out on some great opportunities. Even Warren Buffet has been known to look for undervalued companies in these markets.

Beware, trading in the OTCBB and Pink Sheets is not for everyone. Often the stocks are illiquid and have a large spread between bid and ask. There are also a lot of companies that are completely worthless and will try and masquerade as great companies while diluting their shares. Another worry about these stocks is the fraud involved or “pump and dump” schemes where traders or company insiders have their stock “talked up” on bulletin boards or in chat rooms. The posters make unrealistic statements about where the company and the price per share are going, while selling you their shares. The price per share then plummets. You can avoid most of these problems with due diligence on your part. Take the time to read filings, call the company and investigate thoroughly. This investigation should take place with OTCBB stocks and Pink Sheets. Do not expect to find everything you need to know in the filings.

After you find a stock that you wish to purchase, you pull up the price and find that there is a 30% difference between the “bid” and “ask” price. The bid being what a trader is willing to buy a stock for and the ask what a trader will sell the stock for. Finding spreads of 30% or more is very common in these markets. If the stock is thinly traded with a big spread, you will want to buy on the bid, or a small fraction above the bid. If the stock is moving fast because of news or an announcement, you will probably be forced to buy at the ask. When you place your order to buy on the bid or slightly above, it may take a long time to get filled. You may never get filled. At these times patience is a virtue. You may also want to try buying shares somewhere between the bid and ask.

If you have done your homework well and the company announces great news, such as winning a high paying contract with IBM, the stock will then take off, gaining 100% or more before others can even call their broker to buy shares. This is the reason for investing in these markets.

I do not recommend that you place all of your money in such a “High Risk, High Reward” market, but spend some time investigating penny stocks and you may be rewarded greatly. Remember: exercising due diligence is important for all investment decisions in any market.

About the Author

About the author: Keith Guyette M.Ed, J.D. is a professional trader as well as the owner and head stock analyst for www.bottompicks.com. Mr. Guyette is also the moderator at one of the largest stock bulletin boards on the web.

Once you`ve found the best entry point for your stock trades, you need to keep your position out of trouble while you hold it and wait for potential profits. How does a position get into to trouble? In an environment as volatile as the market, there are many ways, but the one that often triggers a position to move against you is market news. The only way to guard against sudden turns in the market is by setting stops. Stops must be set on every trade. This topic is so important that I`ve devoted several articles to it that you might want to read for more detailed information.

But generally, when you make your trading plan, you must decide where to stop out if the trade goes against you. Do you want to stop out of the stock at a small loss and abandon the trade, or average down by increasing your holdings at a lower price, keeping a loser stop in place even farther down? The best idea is to stop out at a small loss. There aren`t many times when averaging down works. You should limit the averaging down option to extremely low-risk plays with high chances of success. These should be stock trades in which you`ve determined that a price decrease to the level where you`d average down is not a sign of an impending drop but just a temporary move in the stocks range.

The best way to figure this out is by looking at support levels on charts. Averaging down does not mean you don`t have to set stops. It just means you`ll set them lower and give the stock more room to move around before you trade out of it. With appropriate stops in place, you will be practicing good money management. And good money management is the key to protecting your capital, keeping it intact for the stock trades that will create profits.

Once you`ve started to make profits on your stock trades, you need to decide when to exit the position. Your trading plan should tell you when it`s time to exit. Knowing when to exit is vital, because traders who hold on to their positions too long often find that their paper profits disappear. They often end up making no money, or even incurring a loss, on what should have been good stock trades.

To keep this from happening to you, it`s useful to think about how the risk-to-reward ratio changes as a stock you`re holding rises in price. The reward level decreases as the profits in your portfolio increase. There is less reward there because you`ve already collected most of it. The risk rises at the same time. As the price rises to a point where traders start to question how much more it can move, they start to take profits. If the risk is increasing while the reward is decreasing, at some point your risk-to-reward ratio will become unfavorable. You will already know that point is for each trade, since you will have calculated it before you made the trade, according to your trading plan.

Your plan may specify a particular number you`ve chosen as the exit point, or it may tell you to exit when the volume dries up, or to use trailing stops and hold the stock until a trailing stop is triggered. All of these are firm plans that tell you when to leave the position. Your exit plan also may have alternative exit points, and may tell you that if any of several possible things happen, you should exit. These are all good exit plans.

Last, in your stock trades, as long as you have an exit plan in place that is triggered by an unfavourable risk-to-reward ratio, you will never lose your profits. Instead, like all other successful traders you will take your profits at the point that is best for your personal trading style, in accordance with your carefully thought out trading plan.

About the Author

Who Else Wants To Learn A Simple, Step-By-Step System For Generating Quick & Easy Profits, Trading Stocks? - FREE FOR A LIMITED TIME - http://www.stocktradingsystemsx.com/index.php

Stocks that are breaking out are usually very good profit-makers. That’s why you’ll often see us report that “XYZ could break out.”

A breakout occurs when a stock penetrates a previously formed resistance level and shoots ahead with no overhead resistance in the way. These moves can go for many points in a few days.

But you must understand resistance levels.

Suppose that you are watching XYZ every day and notice that it is moving ahead a little by the end of every session. By the end of the week it is up four points and you decide to buy if it is up at the beginning of the next day’s session.

Sure enough, XYZ is up the next morning and you buy at 50. Murphy’s Law then takes effect, and the stock falls five points the next day. Naturally, you aren’t happy and, more important, so are the 10,000 other people who bought the stock on the same day you did. Most of you are thinking the same thing: “If this thing gets anywhere near the price I paid for it, I’m out!”

So after a few days of consolidation XYZ starts to head back up. What do you suppose most of the owners of XYZ who bought it at 50 are going to do the second it gets to 49-1/2? Sell! And XYZ falls like a rock back to 45. The 50 price has become resistance.

Two things have happened. Another wave of people bought XYZ at 49.50, and they can’t wait for it to get up there again so they can get their money back. Also, traders noticed what took place. This is a dream come true for them because they highlight stocks that have formed a buy-sell “range” and start to trade it. They buy XYZ at, say, 45.00 and let it run to 49 and then short it so they can make money on the way back down to 45. This pattern–running up, whacking head at 50, falling back, regrouping, running up, whacking head–can be repeated many times.

But what happens when the XYZ finally releases some great earnings news, or its sector heats up so much that the stock finally punches through that 50 resistance line? Well, for one thing, a “short squeeze” is created. That just means all the traders that shorted XYZ figuring it was going to fall back to 45 now have to actually buy those shares as soon as possible to cover their short.

All that rapid buying along with the “new” money that is coming into XYZ because of the news release creates a fantastic supply-demand situation. All buyers and no sellers means that the stock price must go up to get people to sell it to the people that want it. When it finally does break out, it can go for a bunch real quick.

If you find a chart of a company that has rolled up to a resistance level and then fallen back three or more times, watch it closely every time it gets near that high again. If it finally breaks through its resistance and holds, chances are good that it will really fly from there. The key word is “holds.” You have to be patient and make sure it doesn’t pull back again. In general, if it holds above that resistance level for a full day, it is moving higher.

About the Author

The Stocks2Watch? newsletter has been published since 1998.

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In a previous article, we discussed Ben Graham’s Net Current Asset Value
(NCAV) strategy and how it works. Here we will revisit Graham’s rules, which
were fairly severe in their original form in that they required the price of the
stocks under consideration to be trading at less than two-thirds of their NCAV
or Graham’s Number. These he considered to be “Bargain Issues”, and to
quote him: “Our purchases were made typically at two-thirds or less of such
stripped-down asset value. In most years we carried a wide diversification here–
at least 100 different issues.”

In a previous article, we discussed Ben Graham’s Net Current Asset Value
(NCAV) strategy and how it works. Here we will revisit Graham’s rules, which
were fairly severe in their original form in that they required the price of the
stocks under consideration to be trading at less than two-thirds of their NCAV
or Graham’s Number. These he considered to be “Bargain Issues”, and to
quote him: “Our purchases were made typically at two-thirds or less of such
stripped-down asset value. In most years we carried a wide diversification here–
at least 100 different issues.”

Such a wide diversification may seem excessive for most investors, but
with such low-priced stock there were evidently going to be a few bankruptcy
candidates. Graham considered this strategy to be suitable for what he called
“defensive” investors. He did acknowledge, however, that there were some
“enterprising” investors who could afford to be more aggressive from the point
of view of risk. To this end, he suggested a series of less onerous criteria
for selecting stocks which is outlined below.

First, list all stocks with Price/Earnings ratios below 9. Note: Graham was
writing in 1970 when P/E’s as a whole were not as elevated by technology
stocks as they are today. Readers who are less risk-averse or who just want
to consider a wider range of stocks may wish to vary the P/E in order to see
what comes up — perhaps up to 80 percent of the average P/E of the S&P 500
would be a good start. Currently the operating average is around 18 and 85
percent of that figure is just over 15. Graham did not state if he was using a
Trailing or Forward P/E ratio, but most likely he was using Trailing P/Es. I
personally prefer to use Forward P/E ratios, especially if they are significantly
lower than the Trailing P/E as this implies expected earnings growth and
therefore possible increase in the stock price.

Once we have a list of stocks meeting the P/E criterion, we consider the financial
condition of each stock, referring to the most recent balance sheet:
Initially, Current Assets must be at least 1.5 times Current Liabilities. This can
also be gleaned via a stock screener by displaying stocks with “Current Ratio”
>= 1.5. Total Debt must not be greater than 110% of Net Current Assets (i.e.
the sum of Cash & Cash Equivalents, Inventory, Accounts Receivable).

Looking further back, we need to find evidence of Earnings Stability, with no
deficit in the last five years, i.e. no evidence of an annual loss. Additionally,
evidence of earnings growth over a five-year period is a must. This can simply
be the consideration, for example, that 2004 earnings were greater than 2000
earnings.

There should be some current dividend payout. Finally, the current price of the
stock should be less than 120% of the NCAV per share or Graham’s Number.
Where to find this number? From the balance sheet, subtract Total Liabilities
from Current Assets, and divide the result by the number of shares outstanding.
Assuming you have a positive number that is greater than zero, the stock’s price
should not be greater than 120% of this number.

At grahaminvestor.com, we list stocks that are trading within 120% of the NCAV
per share. Since this was an important measure for Graham, you can start there
and work your way backwards through the other criteria.

Graham did not set any lower limit on market capitalization. “Small companies
may afford enough safety if bought carefully and on a group basis.” He meant
that a well diversified portfolio with a fair number of such companies stock would
protect the enterprising investor from the bankruptcy of one or two companies.

(c) 2005 The Graham Investor
You may use this article, as-is, provided this copyright notice is kept intact.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Copyright 2006 Geoff Gannon

The first quarter of 2006 is over. Now is a good time to reflect on stock prices and the opportunities they present.

Bargains are scarce. Equities are expensive. In recent weeks, I’ve heard several fund managers say valuations are still attractive. I don’t agree. Generally speaking, valuations are unattractive. Returns on equity are higher than historical levels. A market-wide return on equity of 15% is unsustainable. Price-to-earnings ratios may not fully reflect how expensive stocks are. Price-to-book ratios are more alarming.

There are two additional concerns. Most discussions of the relative attractiveness of equities focus on the S&P 500 and forward earnings. The S&P 500 is not the most representative index. It may not be the best index to consider when looking at market-wide valuations.

Forward earnings are (necessarily) estimates. Where current returns on equity are unsustainable, projected earnings that use similar returns on equity may overstate the earnings power of equities in general. This can occur even where the estimates appear reasonable given current earnings. If you start with unsustainable base earnings, you are likely to overestimate future earnings even if you truly believe you are assuming very modest earnings growth.

Assets in general are pricey. Value investors have few places to turn if they continue to insist upon a true margin of safety.

Bonds are unattractive. Long-term inflation risks make U.S. treasury, corporate, and municipal bonds a fool’s bet. There is little to gain and much to lose. The know-nothing investor who buys a top-quality bond today and holds it for decades may very well find his purchasing power diminished.

There may be some select opportunities in foreign equities. But, these are difficult to evaluate. Foreign government obligations are also difficult to evaluate, but that isn’t much of a problem for value investors, because most foreign government debt is priced to perfection. You’ll have to be willing to take a lot of uncompensated risks if you want to own such bonds.

Of course, there are exceptions to every rule. There may be a few bonds out there that are attractive. There certainly are a few attractive stocks out there. But, even those stocks that look very attractive relative to their peers don’t look nearly as attractive when compared to past bargains.

Value investors face a difficult choice. They can assume stock prices will return to historical levels, and hold cash until the correction comes. Or, they can accept the reality they currently face.

There is no logical reason stock prices must necessarily return to historical levels. During the twentieth century, real after-tax returns in diversified groups of common stocks were very high relative to other investment opportunities. There have been various reasons given for why this occurred. Many have said these returns were possible, because of the higher risks involved in holding equities. Over the long-term, risks were somewhat higher than today’s investors seem to remember, but they were hardly severe enough to justify the kind of performance spreads that existed during much of the twentieth century.

True, if you bought at inopportune times, it was possible to remain in a fairly deep hole for a fairly long time. But, if you gave no real consideration to the timing of your purchases or the prospects of the underlying enterprises, you did better than many bondholders who chose their investments with the utmost care.

This is a disconcerting problem. It may be that most investors are overly sensitive to the risk of an immediate “paper” loss in nominal terms, and therefore overlook the much greater risk of a gradual loss of purchasing power. Issuing fixed dollar obligations may be the best bet for any business or government that seeks to swindle investors.

For the sake of the common stockholders, I hope many of the best businesses continue to issue such obligations when money is cheap. Corporate debt gets a bad name, because it tends to be overused by those who don’t need it and shouldn’t want it (and, of course, by those businesses that do need it but won’t survive even if they get it). The businesses that would benefit the most from the use of debt usually appear to have more cash than they could ever need. But, it’s best to think ahead. For truly high quality businesses, the cost of capital will fluctuate far more wildly than the likely returns on capital.

If, during the last hundred years, stocks really were far cheaper than they should have been, is there any reason to believe stock prices will return to past levels? The past is often a pretty good predictor of the future - but, not always. It’s difficult to say whether, over the next few decades, valuations will, on average, be higher or lower than they are today. However, it isn’t all that difficult to say whether, at some point over the next few decades, valuations will be higher or lower than they are today. The answer to that question is almost certainly yes. They will be higher and they will be lower. Maybe for a few years or a few months. Maybe for a full decade. I don’t know.

What I do know is that value investors will have opportunities to make investments with a true margin of safety. But, should they wait?

That’s the most difficult question. Today, I am not finding opportunities that look particularly attractive when compared to the best opportunities of past years. But, I am still able to find a few (in fact, a very few) situations where the expected annual rate of return is greater than 15%.

That will be more than enough to beat the market. It will also likely be enough to provide a material increase in after-tax purchasing power. That’s not guaranteed, but it hardly seems holding cash would offer the better odds in this regard.

So, is an expected annual rate of return of 15% good enough? Is it reasonable to bet on the good opportunity that is currently available instead of waiting for the great opportunity that may yet become available?

I’ll leave that for you to decide.

About the Author

Geoff Gannon writes a daily value investing blog and produces a twice weekly (half hour) value investing podcast at: http://www.gannononinvesting.com

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The stock market can present you with a lot of hot stocks every day. Many of them are new technology stocks that come from the nanotech, biotech, voip, healthcare, homeland defense or internet sectors.

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About the Author

Profitable Stock Market helps day traders and investors pick hot stock trading opportunities every day at http://www.ProfitableStockMarket.com

That speculation aggregated enormous wealth in a very few hands, crashed the housing and stock markets, and produced the Republican Great Depression of 1930-1942. Franklin D. Roosevelt, as part of the New Deal, put into place a series … Continue Reading…

That speculation aggregated enormous wealth in a very few hands, crashed the housing and stock markets, and produced the Republican Great Depression of 1930-1942. Franklin D. Roosevelt, as part of the New Deal, put into place a series … Continue Reading…

All you have to do is crack a book on the Great Depression to see how problems in banks and stock markets eventually transfer over to Main Street. What is needed is the least expensive and most prudent approach. … Read More…

That speculation aggregated enormous wealth in a very few hands, crashed the housing and stock markets, and produced the Republican Great Depression of 1930-1942. Franklin D. Roosevelt, as part of the New Deal, put into place a series … Read More…

“When potential foreign investors see their capital evaporate in Western stock markets, the last thing they will want is to buy a failing factory in Helwan,” says a journalist in the economic section of the daily Al-Ahram. … Read More…

“When potential foreign investors see their capital evaporate in Western stock markets, the last thing they will want is to buy a failing factory in Helwan,” says a journalist in the economic section of the daily Al-Ahram. …

Thom Hartmann: How Wall Street Can Bail Itself Out Without …
That speculation aggregated enormous wealth in a very few hands, crashed the housing and stock markets, and produced the Republican Great Depression of 1930-1942. Franklin D. Roosevelt, as part of the New Deal, put into place a series …

To make money in the stock market, setting stops is an imprecise science and involves a lot of trial and error, but it is an integral part of being a successful trader. A good analogy is to compare stops to buying insurance for your business. Should you avoid insurance altogether just because you`re not sure exactly how much you need, or because it will cost you a little money? No. Instead, you estimate and do the best you can, and in the end it will be well worth the effort.

Where insurance limits risk of loss through disasters, stops limit your risk of loss on bad trades. Stops make it possible to take small losses and get out when a stock goes against you, protecting your capital. Yet, some traders find that they are unwilling to take a loss on any stock. They don`t want to admit that they made a mistake.

Another key to make money in the stock market, what often separates a good trader from a bad one is the ability to take small losses. Your goal, as a successful trader, is to take small losses and make big gains. If you do this, you`ll be profitable. But, you ask, what if you stop out of a stock you still want to trade? Well, you can always buy it back later, and likely at a better price, if the trade still has potential.

Besides limiting risk and helping you take small losses, stops are valuable because they protect profits on winning trades. As I discussed in a previous article, you must lock in your profit when you trade, or you can lose it. You can ensure that you keep your profits by using trailing stops. A trailing stop is a stop order you place below the current price of a long position, progressively moving it up as the price of the position increases so that the stop follows the position up. For a short position, to make money in the stock market you set a stop above the current price and then move it progressively down, following the position as it trends downward.

This means that once you have a profit, you move your stop nearer to the current price so you`ll stop out with most of your profits intact if the position moves against you. If the stop executes and you decide you want to trade the position again, you can buy it back at a better price than you sold it for and then ride it up again. That`s how a good trader makes and keeps money, make money in the stock market by taking small profits multiple times, rather than risking too much waiting for a big win.

About the Author

Who Else Wants To Learn A Simple, Step-By-Step System For Generating Quick & Easy Profits, Trading Stocks? - FREE FOR A LIMITED TIME - http://www.stocktradingsystemsx.com/index.php

If you have money to invest, you might contemplate investing in mutual fund. What is mutual fund? Mutual fund is simply a collection of stocks that are bought using money pooled from various individual investors. Historically, average mutual fund returns 2% less annually than a stock market index.

While the return is less than stellar, there are several advantages of investing in mutual fund. They provide diversification, economies of scale and liquidity. So, the question you want to ask yourself is whether you want to have a smaller return for the advantages mentioned previously.

While two percent difference looks small, it is not pocket change. Investors who set aside $ 1 a day, would have $ 562,000 of savings in fifty years if he invests in stock index fund growing at 10.5% per annum. The same investors would collect ‘only’ $ 271,000 if he invests in average mutual fund that grow at 8.5% per annum.

There are also disadvantages investing in mutual funds. There is a problem on how to choose the ‘right’ mutual fund. If average mutual fund returns 8.5% annually, the below-average fund will give you less than that. Just like picking a stock, you would find some stocks that outperform the average and other stocks that do not perform well.

The next question would be if we investors can do better than stock market index fund of 10.5%? A lot of people believe they can. But, the path ahead is full of obstacles. First, you need to get educated about stocks in general and how to calculate the fair value of a common stock. Next, you need to open a brokerage account to execute your buy and sell order. Finally, you need to keep abreast of new developments. Business comes and goes. Industry rises and falls. Examples of industry that used to dominate are: typewriters, cassette players, sewing machine and traditional camera. If you don’t read often, you may predict that certain stock has a high fair value even when the entire industry is collapsing.

It all comes down to individual investors. Would they want to learn more and get a few more percentage return each year? Or would they let someone else manage their money? Me, I prefer to learn how to manage my own investment. Sure, it is time consuming. But giving a little bit of your time may give you the potential to double your retirement money in fifty years. The potential is rewarding and someday you might even manage someone else’s money.

About the Author

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