November 14, 2008

Current Share Prices

For most investors, they have their full time job other than watching the stock price movement daily. Stock is investments not jobs. However, that does not mean you should ignore your stock after you have bought it. You have already put your egg in a basket and your job now is to watch it.

Periodic monitoring is needed for any investments. Ideally, you need to get updates of your holdings every three months. This is the period when they report quarterly earnings. This poses another question. If we hold a day job during the weekdays and only have a few hours to spare on the weekend, how many stocks should we ideally hold?

There are people that can research stocks fairly quickly. There are those that can’t. The general guidelines however, it will take one weekend to get updated with one of your current holding. Assuming you do one stock each weekend and you have your ‘free’ time during two other weekends, therefore, you can hold a maximum of eleven stocks. This is because you have to evaluate your holdings every thirteen weeks.

What about diversification? Should we buy more stocks to diversify our risk? Yes, we need to diversify. But what is the use of buying investments that you didn’t research ? If you have no time to research then don’t buy it. It is not worth your time. As stated previously, every investors have different speed of evaluating their stock investment. The more experienced investors are generally faster than novice investors. If you can evaluate two stock holdings every weekend, then you can afford to buy 22 different stocks without having to neglect them. This guideline applies to any other form of investment. Put your egg in your basket and then watch them.

About the Author

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Value of Stocks of a Company

by: Sam Vaknin, Ph.D.

The debate rages all over Eastern and Central Europe, in countries in transition as well as in Western Europe. It raged in Britain during the 80s: Is privatization really the robbery in disguise of state assets by a select few, cronies of the political regime? Margaret Thatcher was accuse of it - and so was the Agency of Transformation in the Republic of Macedonia. At what price should the companies owned by the State have been sold? This question is not as simple and straight forward as it sounds.

There is a gigantic stock pricing mechanism known as the Stock Exchange. Willing buyers and willing sellers meet there to freely negotiate deals of stock purchases and sale. Every day new information, macro-economic and micro-economic, determines the value of companies.

Greenspan testifies, the economic figures are too good to be true and the rumour mill starts working: interest rates might go up. The stock market reacts with a frenzy - it crashes. Why?

A top executive is asked how profitable will his firm be this quarter. He winks, he grins - this is interpreted by Wall Street to mean that they WILL go up. The share goes up frantically: no one wants to sell it, everyone want to buy it. The result: a sharp rise in the price. Why?

Moreover: the price of the stock prices of companies A with an identical size, similar financial ratios (and in the same industry) barely budges. Why didn’t it display the same behaviour?

We say that the stocks of the two companies have different elasticity (their prices move up and down differently), probably the result of different sensitivities to changes in interest rates and in earnings estimates. But this is just to rename the problem. The question remains: why? Why do the shares of similar companies react differently?

Economy is a branch of psychology and wherever and whenever humans are involved, answers don’t come easy. A few models have been developed and are in wide use but it is difficult to say that any of them has real predictive or even explanatory value. Some of these models are “technical” in nature: they ignore the fundamentals of the company. Such models assume that all the relevant information is already incorporated in the price of the stock and that changes in expectations, hopes, fears and attitudes will be reflected in the prices immediately. Others are fundamental: these models rely on the company’s performance and assets. The former models are applicable mostly to companies whose shares are traded publicly, in stock exchanges. They are not very useful in trying to attach a value to the stock of a private firm. The latter type (fundamental) models can be applied more broadly.

The value of a stock (a bond, a firm, real estate, or any asset) is the sum of the income (cash flow) that a reasonable investor would expect to get in the future, discounted at the appropriate discount (usually, interest) rates. The discounting reflects the fact that money received in the future has lower (discounted) purchasing power than money received now. Moreover, we can invest money received now and get interest on it (which should normally equal the discount). Put differently: the discount reflects the loss in purchasing power of money not received at present or the interest that we lose by not being able to invest the money currently (because we will receive it only in the future). This is the time value of money. Another problem is the uncertainty of future payments, or the risk that we will not receive them. The longer the period, the higher the risk, of course. A model exists which links the time, the value of the stock, the cash flows expected in the future and the discount (interest) rates.

We said that the rate that we use to discount future cash flows is the prevailing interest rate and this is partly true in stable, predictable and certain economies. But the discount rate depends on the inflation rate in the country where the firm is (or in all the countries where it operates in case it is a multinational), on the projected supply of the shares and demand for it and on the aforementioned risk of non-payment. In certain places, additional factors must be taken into consideration (for example: country risk or foreign exchange risks).

The supply of a stock and, to a lesser extent, the demand for it determine its distribution (how many shareowners are there) and, as a result, its liquidity. Liquidity means how freely can one buy and sell it and at which quantities sought or sold do prices become rigid. Example: if a lot of shares is sold that gives the buyer the control of a company - the buyer will normally pay a “control premium”. Another example: in thin markets it is easier to manipulate the price of a stock by artificially increasing the demand or decreasing the supply (”cornering” the market).

In a liquid market (no problems to buy and to sell), the discount rate is made up of two elements: one is the risk-free rate (normally, the interest payable on government bonds), the other being the risk related rate (the rate which reflects the risk related to the specific stock).

But: what is this risk rate?

The most widely used model to evaluate specific risks is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).

According to it, the discount rate is the risk-free rate plus a coefficient (called beta) multiplied by a risk premium general to all stocks (in the USA it was calculated to be 5.5%). Beta is a measure of the volatility of the return of the stock relative to that of the return of the market. A stock’s Beta can be obtained by calculating the coefficient of the regression line between the weekly returns of the stock and those of the stock market during a selected period of time.

Unfortunately, different betas can be calculated by selecting different parameters (for instance, the length of the period on which the calculation is performed). Another problem is that betas change with every new datum. Professionals resort to sensitivity tests which neutralize the changes that betas undergo with time.

Still, with all its shortcomings and disputed assumptions, the CAPM should be used to determine the discount rate. But to use the discount rate we must have what to discount, future cash flows.

The only relatively certain cash flows are the dividends paid to the shareholders. So, Dividend Discount Models (DDM) were developed.

Other models relate to the projected growth of the company (which is supposed to increase the payable dividends and to cause the stock to appreciate in value).

Still, DDM require, as input, the ultimate value of the stock and growth models are only suitable for mature firms with a stable and not too high dividend growth. Two-stage models are more powerful because they combine both emphases: on dividends and on growth. This is because of the life-cycle of firms: at first, they tend to have a high and unstable dividend growth rate (the DDM tackles this adequately). As the firm matures, it is expected to have a lower and stable growth rate, suitable for the treatment of Growth Models.

But how many years of future income (from dividends) should we use in a our calculations? If a firm is profitable now, is there any guarantee that it will continue to be so in the next year, the next decade? If it does continue to be profitable - who can guarantee that its dividend policy will not change and that the same rate of dividends will continue to be distributed?

The number of periods (normally, years) selected for the calculation is called the “price to earnings (P/E) multiple”. The multiple denotes by how much we multiply the (after tax) earnings of the firm to obtain its value. It depends on the industry (growth or dying), the country (stable or geopolitically perilous), on the ownership structure (family or public), on the management in place (committed or mobile), on the product (new or old technology) and a myriad of other factors. It is almost impossible to objectively quantify or formulate this process of analysis and decision making. In telecommunications, the range of numbers used for valuing stocks oa private firm is between 7 and 10, for instance. If the company is in the public domain, the number can shoot up to 20 times the net earnings.

While some companies pay dividends (some even borrow to do so), others just do not pay. So in stock valuation, dividends are not the only future incomes you expect to get. Capital gains (profits which are the result of the appreciation in the value of the stock) also count. This is the result of expectations regarding the firm’s free cash flow, in particular the free cash flow that goes to the shareholders.

There is no agreement as to what constitutes free cash flow. In general, it is the cash which a firm has after sufficiently investing in its development, research and (predetermined) growth. Cash Flow Statements have become a standard accounting requirement in the 80s (starting with the USA). Because “free” cash flow can be easily extracted from these reports, stock valuation based on free cash flow became increasingly popular and feasible. It is considered independent of the idiosyncratic parameters of different international environments and therefore applicable to multinationals or to national firms which export.

The free cash flow of a firm that is debt-financed solely by its shareholders belongs solely to them. Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is:

FCFE = Operating Cash Flow MINUS Cash needed for meeting growth targets

Where

Operating Cash Flow = Net Income (NI) PLUS Depreciation and Amortization

Cash needed for meeting growth targets = Capital Expenditures + Change in Working Capital

Working Capital = Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities

Change in Working Capital = One Year’s Working Capital MINUS Previous Year’s Working Capital

The complete formula is:

FCFE = Net Income PLUS

Depreciation and Amortization MINUS

Capital Expenditures PLUS

Change in Working Capital.

A leveraged firm that borrowed money from other sources (could also be preferred stockholders) has a different free cash flow to equity. Its CFCE must be adjusted to reflect the preferred dividends and principal repayments of debt (MINUS sign) and the proceeds from new debt and preferred stocks (PLUS sign). If its borrowings are sufficient to pay the dividends to the holders of preference shares and to service its debt - its debt to capital ratio is sound.

The FCFE of a leveraged firm is:

FCFE = Net Income PLUS

Depreciation and Amortization MINUS

Principal Repayment of Debt MINUS

Preferred Dividends PLUS

Proceeds from New Debt and Preferred MINUS

Capital Expenditures MINUS

Changes in Working Capital.

A sound debt ratio means:

FCFE = Net Income MINUS

(1 - Debt Ratio)*(Capital Expenditures MINUS

Depreciation and Amortization PLUS

Change in Working Capital).

About The Author

Sam Vaknin is the author of “Malignant Self Love - Narcissism Revisited” and “After the Rain - How the West Lost the East”. He is a columnist in “Central Europe Review”, United Press International (UPI) and ebookweb.org and the editor of mental health and Central East Europe categories in The Open Directory, Suite101 and searcheurope.com. Until recently, he served as the Economic Advisor to the Government of Macedonia.

His web site: http://samvak.tripod.com

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Dow Jones Stock Quote

If you have money to invest, you might contemplate investing in mutual fund. What is mutual fund? Mutual fund is simply a collection of stocks that are bought using money pooled from various individual investors. Historically, average mutual fund returns 2% less annually than a stock market index.

While the return is less than stellar, there are several advantages of investing in mutual fund. They provide diversification, economies of scale and liquidity. So, the question you want to ask yourself is whether you want to have a smaller return for the advantages mentioned previously.

While two percent difference looks small, it is not pocket change. Investors who set aside $ 1 a day, would have $ 562,000 of savings in fifty years if he invests in stock index fund growing at 10.5% per annum. The same investors would collect ‘only’ $ 271,000 if he invests in average mutual fund that grow at 8.5% per annum.

There are also disadvantages investing in mutual funds. There is a problem on how to choose the ‘right’ mutual fund. If average mutual fund returns 8.5% annually, the below-average fund will give you less than that. Just like picking a stock, you would find some stocks that outperform the average and other stocks that do not perform well.

The next question would be if we investors can do better than stock market index fund of 10.5%? A lot of people believe they can. But, the path ahead is full of obstacles. First, you need to get educated about stocks in general and how to calculate the fair value of a common stock. Next, you need to open a brokerage account to execute your buy and sell order. Finally, you need to keep abreast of new developments. Business comes and goes. Industry rises and falls. Examples of industry that used to dominate are: typewriters, cassette players, sewing machine and traditional camera. If you don’t read often, you may predict that certain stock has a high fair value even when the entire industry is collapsing.

It all comes down to individual investors. Would they want to learn more and get a few more percentage return each year? Or would they let someone else manage their money? Me, I prefer to learn how to manage my own investment. Sure, it is time consuming. But giving a little bit of your time may give you the potential to double your retirement money in fifty years. The potential is rewarding and someday you might even manage someone else’s money.

About the Author

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Once you’ve figured out how much of a down payment you can make on your home mortgage, it’s time to determine how to document the source of your funds for the down payment and closing costs. Now you might be saying, “Why do they care where I get the money?” Lenders need to verify the source of funds to both assess the underlying risk in you as a borrower as well as to prevent loan fraud. This makes it imperative for you, the applicant, to maintain complete and detailed records of how the money which you plan to use for a down payment makes it into your hands. Money from your own savings, checking & money market accounts looks best to the bank for a variety of reasons, and is amongst the easiest sources of capital to document.

Money in the bank is also very easy to document. The lender has the option of asking you to submit bank statements to them indicating that you have the money for the down payment and closing costs, or performing a formal Verification of Deposit directly with your bank. Most lenders ask for statements, generally 2 to 3 months if you are providing full income documentation or up to 24 months if you are providing alternative documentation of income.

When discussing your down payment, your lender may discuss the topic of seasoning requirements with you. If you have money in a bank account for 3 months and it reflects consistently in consecutive statements, that money is considered “seasoned” 3 months. Your lender may require that your down payment money be comprised of seasoned funds, and that any large influxes of capital into your bank account may have to be extensively and thoroughly explained, documented, and potentially disqualified. So start saving and plan ahead!

There are loan types which do not require any form of documentation in this regard, particularly No Asset Verification mortgages or “no assets” loan programs. Just as it sounds, this type of mortgage does not require any verification of assets, however lenders generally do not allow the applicant to borrow more than 60% to 70% of the property value without some form of asset verification. There is another type of loan program which is increasingly popular over the last few years called Stated Income Stated Assets mortgages, which allows for limited verification of assets, and some of these programs allow up to 75% or 80% of the property’s value to be loaned to the borrower.

Buying a home with no down payment, often referred to as a “no money down” mortgage, has become a popular way for first time buyers to enjoy the benefits of homeownership without substantial savings, however it is important to note that borrowers who want a zero down loan will be faced with higher interest rates and monthly payments and are statistically shown to have higher rates of default and foreclosure.

No matter what you decide to put down, if you have and can document assets above and beyond the down payment and closing costs on the home and mortgage you can establish “reserves” with your application. Having ample capital reserves, good credit, and your down payment sitting in your bank account for a couple of months can in combination help you qualify for some of the best programs available, and potentially save you hundreds of thousands of dollars over the life of your mortgage.

About the Author

Tristan Hunt is a seasoned financial professional with a wealth of experience in the mortgage industry, advising clients on debt consolidation, refinancing & investor loans. Website: http://www.RefinanceOne.net

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November 13, 2008

Stock Market Basics


The excitement over China s stimulus package quickly fizzled yesterday in the world s stock markets, too. Traders were high on the plans coming out of the Far East in early trading and pushed the Dow up over 150 points. …

How abnormal was the stock market in October 2008?
October 2008 was certainly a spectacular month in the stock markets. Large daily changes occurred that surprised most investors. Yet, although many investors had not seen such wild gyrations of stock prices for a long time, …

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Nokia Stock Quote

October 2008 was certainly a spectacular month in the stock markets. Large daily changes occurred that surprised most investors. Yet, although many investors had not seen such wild gyrations of stock prices for a long time, … Read More…

The excitement over China s stimulus package quickly fizzled yesterday in the world s stock markets, too. Traders were high on the plans coming out of the Far East in early trading and pushed the Dow up over 150 points. … Read More…

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November 12, 2008

Nokia Stock Quote


The excitement over China s stimulus package quickly fizzled yesterday in the world s stock markets, too. Traders were high on the plans coming out of the Far East in early trading and pushed the Dow up over 150 points. …

Asian stock markets gain on China stimulus plan
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The process of creating sports betting samples is long and arduous …
I ll join after first quarter profits are reported to stock markets and investors . Those wishes may not go unnoticed, evidenced by the first financial support of the sports betting project, Cairone Silcott from New York City. …

Existing Sources of Investment Information have Failed Us: Patent …
As global stock markets continue to struggle, smart investors seeking to capitalize on relatively cheap stock prices are searching for promising investment opportunities. Unfortunately, however, most investors are likely relying on the …

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Nasdaq 100


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Sue the Fed, Dubai in Trouble, Coming Food Crisis and More!
The excitement over China s stimulus package quickly fizzled yesterday in the world s stock markets, too. Traders were high on the plans coming out of the Far East in early trading and pushed the Dow up over 150 points. …

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Free Stock Quote

Let the Stock Market Work For You in 2006 … How to make Money with Stocks BY.- StressFreeTraders.com

A beginner usually feels very attracted to the stock market while for example discovering a stock that’s being reported in CNBC or the news program and watching it rise fast and make new highs from $10 to $35 in just 2 months.

While learning about this successful news story he’s saying to himself … ” Oh boy if I was one of those lucky guys who bought that stock back when it was priced at $10 i easily would have tripled my money by now … That means my 20 grand would transformed in to a whooping 70 K ! hassle free … I would have been able to grab one of those big HUMMERs on the spot and probably pick up a nice Rolex by the way !

The stock market news constantly reports of hot stocks that are breaking out and making tremendous gains on the same day or doubling in price in just a few hours. Back in the bull market of the late 90’s you could easily see a good number of hot stocks sprouting out every week.

Those years surely made it look like every body could easily take LONG SHOTS and make a shiny pile of gold every day in the stock market. But today’s market is a different story. A totally different animal.

Some say that the stock market has gotten more realistic. Fantasy land is over and GAMBLING YOUR WAY TO RICHES is not an option anymore. You might get lucky a few times, but your constant loses can wipe you out sooner or later.

The fact that the bull market period has ended for now doesn’t mean that you can’t make a great deal of money in today’s market. A lot folks from many walks of life keep making excellent profits on a daily basis, pocketing hundreds & thousands of dollars by trading stocks online.

Success in stock trading & investing starts by applying a wiser and REALISTIC methodology for choosing stocks as well as for getting in and out of them with profits in mind.

You need to look at the stock market more realistically. You got to learn that you can benefit when stocks go up and also when they FALL down. You got to WORK SMARTER and get more selective about the hot stock trading opportunities that you choose. You need to embrace the nature of day trading and be fully prepared to take advantage of stocks that are poised for a BIG RISE on the same day.

It is said that the worst thing that can happen to a beginner stock trader is to get information overload.

It’s better to go step by step, and test a simple strategy that can show you how to focus on concrete ways to make money. For more information on how to pick and trade stocks in a simple yet effective way visit Stress Free Traders today at http://www.StressFreeTraders.com

In the end, stock market investing & trading is all about buying and selling according to your knowledge filter. Once you master and follow youre proven filter parameters like a clock, you can expect to start making serious amounts of cash on a consistent basis.

About the Author

Stress Free Traders helps day traders and investors pick hot stock trading opportunities every day at http://www.StressFreeTraders.com

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About the Author

Stress Free Traders helps beginner stock traders and investors from every country in the world take advantage of momentum stock opportunities every day in a practical way at http://www.StressFreeTraders.com

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Definition Of Stock Exchange

Wearing birkenstock shoes is like wearing no other pair of shoes. Johann Adam Birkenstock was a shoemaker in Germany in the late 1700s. The birkenstock shoe was designed with an understanding that a persons shoes should reflect the shape of their feet. If the shoe is contoured and shaped like a human foot, comfort is sure to follow. For many, many years birkenstock shoes have done just that. Comfort, style and durability have all been a part of every pair of birkenstocks.

In prehistoric times skins or hides were probably tied around the foot for protection and warmth. The sandal, probably the earliest form of shoe, was worn in Egypt, Greece, and Rome; an early form of the boot was also known in Greece and Rome. The characteristic shoe of the Middle Ages was the soft, clinging moccasin, which extended to the ankle. It was highly decorated and was of velvet, cloth of gold, and, increasingly, of leather. Today the choices of shoes are greatwonderful styles and comfort.

Whether its birkenstock shoes, birkenstock sandals or clogs, each pair is beautifully designed and crafted for easy wear and fashionable.


About the author:

Mike Yeager
Author/Publisher
http://www.a1-shoes-4u.com/

Peter Lynch has long been one of the most revered peronalities in stock investing. His returns as a manager of the Fidelity Magellan Mutual Fund were extraordinary, and the huge influx of money into the fund largely because of his stewardship made it the largest mutual fund ever with him at the helm. But Peter Lynch is also known for a series of books he wrote which made investing easy to understand for all people. “Beating the Street”, “One Up on Wall Street”, and “Learn To Earn” all gave a plain-spoken account of what Peter Lynch had learned in his many years of successful stock picking. He laid his philosophy out into a series of well respected books, and many people have used his techniques successfully to find great stocks of their own to invest in. Most of his principles are as applicable today as when he first introduced them. We’ll take a look at a few of these briefly:

Peter Lynch’s greatest teaching was that we are all surrounded by superior investing ideas if we open our eyes to the possibilities. Behind every great stock is a great company, Lynch figured. So the next time you’re at the mall, pay attention to which companies are doing the most business. Which store is really crowded? What restaurant chain has really long lines when you go there? Think of a company that moves to your town and dominates the local competition. These companies, Peter Lynch told us, are the ones that grow into the big winners on Wall Street. And companies that go from tiny seeds to huge multinationals make their investors rich. Most of the battle in investing is finding the best companies and putting the money into them when they’re just beginning to grow.

Peter Lynch loved growth stocks. He had his biggest gains when he invested in stocks of companies that were hot at the time. As they ascended into the highest arc of their growth phase, their share price also sizzled. Investors who get in early, at the beginning stage end up making boatloads of dough. Get a few of these twelve-baggers, as Lynch called them, and you’re well on your way to easy street. He followed his own advice and often hit huge returns on several stocks that would save his entire portfolio return for the year. If you’re pretty sure you’re onto a winner, then you need to swing for the fences when your time at the plate occurs. Companies that have rapidly accelerating profit margins and increasing sales have stocks that rise along with them. As the business expands, the company’s share price rises accordingly. If you can find a micro-cap company that ends up becoming a large cap during the time frame you hold it, you’ll have substantial returns.

It’s impossible to summarize the written and spoken words of a great investor like Peter Lynch in a space like this, so I’ll encourage you to do more research and check into this series yourself. All of the basic priniciples of growth investing and portfolio management are covered, and he’s also an upbeat writer who illuminates a great many bullish insights you may not have looked into before. Concentrating on a portfolio of growth stocks has worked for others, and it may just work for you.

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Forex, the Foreign Exchange Market, is a worldwide market for buying and selling foreign currencies. The major currencies that are traded include the U.S. Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Australian Dollar (AUD), Japanese Yen (JPY), and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The purpose of this article is not to go into the details of how Forex works, but to compare the benefits of trading in the Forex market versus trading the Equity (American stocks) or Futures markets (Commodities).

The Forex market is the largest market in the world with over 2 trillion dollars traded every day. This compares to the 200 billion dollars traded daily in the Equity and Futures market each. Because of this, the Forex market benefits from fairer prices, price stability, and better trade execution.

Forex has the advantage of being open 24 hours a day. The Forex market opens on Sunday afternoon and remains open until it closes on Friday afternoon. The Equity and Futures markets are only open Monday through Friday 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. This gives Forex traders the opportunity to trade around their personal schedule. Also, liquidity in the Equity and Futures markets are reduced after regular trading hours.

When trading Forex, you will not incur the commissions or transaction fees that exist in the Equity and Futures markets. You pay a spread on the currency pair you are trading and costs are very low, especially when compared to the other markets.

Investment leverage in the Forex market can be as high as a 200:1 margin. In the Equity and Futures markets your average margin is 4:1. This means that you can control $10,000 worth of currency with only a 50-dollar margin.

In the Equity and Futures markets, investors are expected to fund several thousand dollars to open a trading account. In the Forex market, you can open a mini account for only 300 dollars and begin trading.

In the Equity market, short selling is very risky and comes with limitations. In the Forex market, you are able to buy long or sell short any currency pair with no limitations or difference in risk.

As an investor in the Forex market, you are able to concentrate on only a few major currencies. There are seven major currencies yielding four major currency pairs that most Forex investors concentrate on. Whereas in the Equity market, investors have over 40,000 stocks to choose from when contemplating where to invest their money.

There are many factors to consider when deciding on which market you want to spend your time and money. The Forex market provides many benefits over the other major investment markets that will allow you, the investor, to make larger profits, take less risk, and spend more time with your personal life and less time investing.

If you want to learn more about trading the Forex market, you can find tips, news, analysis and a great FREE ebook, Forex Freedom - How To Turn a $300 Investment Into $30,000 In As Little As 6 Months, visit http://www.tornadoforex.com

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